AI Spending Powers Over 50% of 1.6% U.S. GDP Growth in H1 2025

• AI spending just became America’s economic heavyweight. Fresh numbers show that more than half of the country’s 1.6% GDP growth in the first half of this year came straight from AI-related investment. We’re talking software, computing gear, and massive data center buildouts that are basically reshaping how the economy grows.

• The latest Barclays breakdown paints a pretty clear picture. AI’s contribution to GDP has been climbing steadily since 2022, but the real action happened recently. In Q2 2025, AI boosted growth by 1.01 percentage points on a seasonally adjusted basis—the biggest quarterly jump we’ve seen so far.

• Let’s rewind a bit. Back in Q2 2022, AI was adding maybe 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Decent, but nothing earth-shattering. Throughout 2024, that figure pushed up to around 0.4 to 0.6 points per quarter. Then came 2025, and things accelerated hard. The Q2 surge past the 1 percent mark wasn’t random—it lines up perfectly with the explosion in data center construction and the insane demand for AI chips, especially from companies like Nvidia (NVDA), which basically powers the whole AI computing ecosystem.

AI-related investment accounted for over half of the 1.6 percent U.S. GDP growth during the first half of the year, with Q2 2025 contributing more than 1 percentage point.

• Now, it hasn’t been a smooth ride. The data shows some quarters where AI’s contribution dipped close to zero before bouncing back. That choppiness reflects the reality of how these investments happen—companies don’t spend evenly. They ramp up during major AI model releases, data center expansions, or when chip supply chains finally catch up with demand. But zoom out, and the trend is unmistakable: upward and accelerating.

• What makes this significant is scale. AI spending isn’t just a tech story anymore—it’s become a genuine pillar of U.S. economic growth. Software, hardware, and infrastructure tied to AI now represent a meaningful chunk of what’s driving the economy forward. As capital keeps flooding into data centers and advanced computing systems, AI’s share of GDP growth could reshape everything from sector performance to long-term policy planning around innovation.

My Take: AI’s evolution from tech buzzword to GDP heavyweight happened faster than most expected. The Q2 spike isn’t a fluke—it’s infrastructure investment finally hitting critical mass. With companies doubling down on compute capacity, this trend has legs.

Source: Charlie Bilello