Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge to 74%
- Traders are getting excited about what’s coming in December. According to Mister Crypto, the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates at its December 10, 2025 meeting have jumped to 74.1%. The CME FedWatch Tool backs this up, showing most market participants now expect the central bank to lower rates from 3.75%–4.00% down to 3.50%–3.75%.
- This would be the Fed’s first move toward easier monetary policy in almost two years. The timing makes sense—inflation has been cooling off, and there are signs the economy might not need such tight restrictions anymore. But it’s a balancing act. Cut too early and inflation could flare up again. Wait too long and you risk choking off credit and consumer spending.
- Still, investors are clearly treating this as good news. Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing for companies, better valuations for tech and growth stocks, and less appealing bond yields—which typically pushes money into riskier assets. The futures markets didn’t waste time reacting, with traders piling into high-beta sectors and alternatives like Bitcoin and gold.
- What’s striking is how quickly sentiment has shifted. Just a month ago, the odds of a December cut sat around 45%. Now we’re at 74%, suggesting traders believe in a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. If the Fed follows through, December’s meeting could mark a clear pivot from fighting inflation to supporting growth—something central banks worldwide will be watching closely.
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