Ethereum Coin Outlook Diverges From Global Liquidity Trends

Ethereum’s price is moving independently from global M2 growth, sparking questions about its sensitivity to macro liquidity as analysts expect consolidation before a potential rally in late 2025 and early 2026.

Ethereum’s recent market behavior is catching attention as it decouples from global M2 liquidity trends. The chart shows ETH drifting sideways while global M2 supply stays elevated. This unusual split suggests Ethereum might be entering a different phase where traditional liquidity connections weaken—particularly when US liquidity conditions stall or tighten.

According to market analysis, this disconnect “often happens when US liquidity growth hinders,” indicating that Ethereum’s consolidation reflects broader macro conditions rather than just sentiment shifts. Current regulatory debates add uncertainty: proposed tax changes targeting digital asset transactions could squeeze smaller crypto firms, risking bankruptcies and pushing talent toward friendlier jurisdictions. Structural liquidity slowdowns combined with regulatory pressure could further delay market momentum.

Industry groups warn that strict transactional taxes might backfire by slowing innovation and reducing taxable activity. They’re pushing an alternative: raising profit taxes on high-earning corporations instead of targeting blockchain operations directly. This approach, they argue, would maintain government revenue while protecting digital asset development.

Multiple policy amendments around employment and profit taxes are being discussed to address potential revenue gaps. For Ethereum, the chart shows key long-term support around $2,836 in a Wyckoff Accumulation zone—pointing to underlying market confidence even during consolidation.

Analysts expect ETH to move sideways a bit longer before a potential breakout between December 2025 and January 2026, matching the chart’s projected upward trajectory. If macro liquidity improves or regulatory uncertainty clears, Ethereum could reconnect with traditional liquidity cycles and set up for a strong long-term rally.

Source: Ted