U.S. Population Growth Set to Hit Century Low of 756,600 by 2026
U.S. population growth is projected to slow to its weakest pace of the century by mid-2026, according to official demographic estimates. The total U.S. population is expected to increase by just 756,600 people in the 12 months ending July 2026, marking a sharp deceleration from the post-pandemic rebound observed in recent years.
The slowdown reflects a combination of declining net immigration and historically weak natural population growth, defined as births minus deaths. Together, these trends point to a structural shift in U.S. demographics rather than a temporary fluctuation.
Current population growth trends
In the 12 months ending July 1, 2025, the U.S. population increased by approximately 1.78 million, bringing the total population to nearly 342 million. While the population continued to grow in absolute terms, this represented the first meaningful slowdown in annual growth since 2021.
Long-term data show that U.S. population growth has been declining for decades, steadily falling from early-2000s levels. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend, followed by a brief recovery that now appears to be losing momentum.
Immigration and natural population growth
Immigration has emerged as a key driver of the latest deceleration. Net immigration declined by roughly 50% year over year, falling to approximately 1.26 million people.
At the same time, natural population growth totaled just 519,000, underscoring continued weakness in domestic demographic momentum. The combination of reduced immigration and low birth rates highlights the structural nature of the slowdown rather than a cyclical development.
Why it matters
- Population growth supports labor force expansion and consumer demand
- Slower growth may constrain long-term economic capacity
- Aging demographics could tighten workforce availability and affect housing demand
As demographic momentum fades, population trends are shifting from a long-term tailwind to a potential headwind for the U.S. economy.
Outlook for 2026
Projections indicate an even sharper slowdown ahead. An increase of 756,600 people by July 2026 would represent the slowest annual population growth recorded this century.
Persistently weak natural growth rates and lower immigration levels are expected to remain key constraints on future population expansion unless offset by policy changes or productivity gains.
What’s next
Demographers expect population growth to remain subdued as policymakers address immigration trends, labor supply challenges, and an aging population. Further updates are likely as new census and migration data become available.
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