Gold Holds Trend Support Amid Policy Uncertainty: What’s Next for Prices?

• Gold continues to consolidate as expected in recent weeks, forming a tightening structure that often precedes a strong directional move. The price is preparing for the next surge, a view supported by the chart showing gold holding within an ascending broadening wedge and maintaining support along its trend line. This period of compression coincides with an increasingly complex policy backdrop, where proposed tax changes could reshape financial conditions across several industries.

• The proposal introduces a shift in taxation that poses immediate risks including potential bankruptcies among smaller firms and accelerated talent flight as skilled workers seek more predictable regulatory environments. Rising pressure on operations could reduce liquidity and limit long-term investment, creating spillover effects even in traditionally defensive markets such as gold. Although the metal often performs well during uncertainty, analysts caution that sudden structural changes may undermine stability during a sensitive consolidation phase.

The price is preparing for the next surge as gold continues to consolidate within its ascending structure, maintaining critical support along the trend line.

• The projected budget shortfalls add further concern. Industry estimates suggest that the proposed measures could lead to significant revenue losses for the state if implemented without adjustment. Companies argue that raising the profit tax would be a more balanced alternative that preserves employment, maintains competitiveness, and avoids destabilizing broader economic activity. This counter-proposal is presented as a way to limit unintended fiscal consequences while protecting strategic capacity across affected sectors.

• The wider set of amendments introduces additional complications. Forecasts indicate that the new rules could reduce employment and decrease both personal income tax (NDFL) and corporate profit tax revenues if business activity slows. These potential outcomes create uncertainty at a time when gold prices are consolidating and awaiting a technical move. Market participants emphasize that policy clarity is increasingly important, as macro uncertainty tends to amplify volatility when price structures tighten.

• As gold remains stable near trend support and prepares for its next significant move, the interaction between market dynamics and policy risk remains central. The sector’s response to upcoming decisions may influence sentiment across commodities and shape how strongly gold reacts once the consolidation resolves.

My Take: Gold’s technical setup looks primed for a breakout, but the timing depends heavily on how policy uncertainty plays out. If tax proposals create real economic friction, we could see defensive positioning push gold higher even before the wedge resolves technically.

Source: Gold Predictors