XRP Price Drops to $0.50 as NUPL Metric Turns Negative

XRP slid toward the $0.50 level in late February 2026 as on-chain data signaled a full sentiment reset across the network. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric has now moved into negative territory, confirming that most holders are sitting at a loss following the steep correction from late-2025 highs.

This shift marks a decisive transition from profit-dominated positioning to broad unrealized losses. Historically, such readings have coincided with capitulation phases, when speculative excess is flushed out and market structure resets.

Key On-Chain Signals

NUPL Turns Negative

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric tracks the aggregate difference between unrealized profits and unrealized losses across all XRP holders. When the indicator falls below zero, it suggests that the majority of market participants are underwater.

During the previous rally phase in late 2025, XRP traded above $2 while NUPL climbed above 0.6, reflecting widespread profitability and strong bullish positioning. Since then, price has retraced sharply into the $0.50 to $0.70 range, and NUPL has fully reversed into negative territory.

At current levels near $0.50, unrealized losses now dominate the network. This confirms that paper gains from the prior rally have largely been erased.

Capitulation and Historical Context

Looking at prior market cycles, similar NUPL breakdowns have historically marked capitulation phases rather than structural collapse.

Comparable resets occurred in 2023 and again in mid-2024, when the metric briefly dipped to or below zero before prices stabilized and gradually recovered. In both cases, the negative NUPL reading aligned with peak pessimism and aggressive forced selling.

Once speculative leverage and short-term positioning were cleared out, XRP began forming a base. The current structure mirrors those historical setups, suggesting that much of the excess built during the late-2025 rally has now been unwound.

Why This Matters for XRP

A negative NUPL reading confirms that profit-taking pressure has largely disappeared. When most holders are already in loss, the incentive to sell often diminishes, as weaker participants have already exited.

However, capitulation alone does not automatically trigger a rally. A sustainable recovery requires fresh demand to absorb remaining supply and restore momentum. Without renewed buying interest, price can remain compressed even after sentiment resets.

In this context, the $0.50 region becomes a psychological and structural pivot. Sustained stabilization above this level could signal that forced distribution has concluded

Outlook for the Next Move

The sharp NUPL collapse resembles a classic late-stage correction pattern seen across previous crypto cycles. When unrealized losses dominate, markets often approach a turning point, but confirmation must come from price behavior rather than sentiment metrics alone.

If XRP can consolidate above $0.50 and attract renewed participation, the current reset may lay the groundwork for a broader recovery phase. Until clear accumulation signals emerge, volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market digests the recent flush and recalibrates positioning.

Source: STEPH IS CRYPTO