Bitcoin Price Prediction: $85K EMA Decisive as BTC Trades at $68,924
Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,924 after losing the critical 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), which sits near $85,446. This level previously acted as long-term support, but with price now trading well below it, the broader market structure has shifted. Until Bitcoin can reclaim this level on a weekly basis, bears appear to maintain control of the macro trend.
Key Technical Signals
The 100-Week EMA Breakdown
The weekly chart reflects a familiar technical sequence: support, break, retest or rejection, followed by further downside. Bitcoin held the 100-week EMA for months before eventually breaking below it. After the breakdown, price attempted to stabilize but failed to reclaim the moving average, resulting in continued selling pressure. The failure to recover this level signals a potential structural shift rather than a temporary pullback.
Why $85K Is the Critical Level
The $85K region, aligned with the 100-week EMA, has become Bitcoin’s decisive inflection point. Market commentary suggests that until BTC can reclaim the 100-week EMA, every bounce should be treated as exit liquidity. This means that short-term rallies toward the $85K region may represent distribution rather than a confirmed reversal unless price can secure a decisive weekly close above the moving average and hold it.
Bearish Scenario: Rejection at $85K
If Bitcoin rallies toward $85K and faces another rejection, it would reinforce the current bearish structure. A rejection at that level would confirm continued distribution and strengthen the case for further downside. In this scenario, bears remain firmly in control of the broader market narrative.
Bullish Scenario: Weekly Reclaim and Hold
The bullish shift is technically straightforward. A decisive weekly close above the 100-week EMA, followed by sustained strength and consolidation above $85K, would dramatically alter the outlook. Such a move would suggest that the recent breakdown was a false signal rather than the beginning of a deeper structural correction.
Why This Matters for the Macro Trend
The 100-week EMA has historically acted as a defining macro trend indicator for Bitcoin. Losing this level increases volatility and uncertainty, placing greater importance on the battle around $85K. With BTC trading significantly below the EMA, the next test of this zone is likely to determine the direction of the next major move.
Outlook
At present, bears control the trend. Until Bitcoin produces a decisive weekly reclaim above the 100-week EMA with strong follow-through, rallies should be approached cautiously. The $85K level now represents the line in the sand that will determine whether this phase is a temporary shakeout or the beginning of a deeper correction cycle.
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